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Some California Democrats are devising a strategy to sidestep a potential disaster in the governor’s race: delaying their vote until the last moment.
With no singular candidate standing out as a front-runner and an open primary system where the top two candidates progress regardless of their party, anxiety has surfaced among Democratic voters.
To prevent the nightmarish scenario of Democrats being excluded from the November general election, many have rallied behind former Rep. Eric Swalwell, who ultimately faltered after facing multiple sexual assault allegations.
This concern has evolved into caution, prompting some party activists and key figures to advocate for a strategy of waiting to see how the polls shape up before voting for the candidate who has gained the most traction right before Election Day.
In a “typical year,” Katie Evans-Reber from San Francisco said she would likely support former U.S. Rep. Katie Porter, even though her chances of making it to November seem slim based on current polling. However, this year, the stakes feel much higher, as she believes any Democratic candidate aligns more with her values than a Republican would, especially as a member of the LGBTQ+ community.
She worries that disillusioned Trump supporters might gravitate towards Republican Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, giving him enough momentum to rival the influence of Trump’s endorsement for Steve Hilton, the ex-Fox News host currently leading in polls. This scenario could result in both Republicans advancing to the runoff.
“What shifted for me was moving from ‘I’m not sure what to do’ to ‘I’m strategically holding off my decision,’” Evans-Reber explained.
Leading the pack is Xavier Becerra, the former Health and Human Services secretary, who has propelled himself from the lower single digits to the top of the polls following Swalwell’s exit. As his popularity rises, so does scrutiny over his tenure at HHS and as California’s former attorney general.
Following Becerra are progressive challengers Tom Steyer, a billionaire activist and former businessman, alongside Porter. San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan has also positioned himself as a tech-savvy moderate who aligns with Silicon Valley interests.
Evans-Reber and passionate Democrats have been sharing videos and posts on social media, urging others to adopt a similar “wait and see” approach.
One post even wrongly credited this strategy to Heather Cox Richardson, a political historian and influential Democratic voice behind the substack “Letters from an American.” Evans-Reber initially shared that fallacy, later clarifying that Richardson was not the source of the advice.
“While it’s not bad advice, it’s 100% not mine,” Richardson clarified in an interview with CalMatters.
Democratic political consultant Paul Mitchell disagrees with the late voting strategy.
“It sends the wrong message,” he stated. “I believe the message should consistently be: ‘As soon as you receive your ballot, complete it and submit it immediately.’”
Mitchell noted that while activists may vocalize and promote a strategy for delayed voting, organizing such a movement effectively at scale is unlikely to yield meaningful outcomes.
“People generally vote for the candidate they intended to support,” Mitchell added, referring to his firm’s tracking of daily ballot submissions statewide.
The late voting push contradicts recent recommendations from election officials and Governor Gavin Newsom, who have urged voters to submit their ballots early to alleviate California’s historically slow vote-counting process. Attorney General Rob Bonta, also a Democrat, warned that social media posts advocating for delayed voting may constitute misinformation and “potentially unlawful” actions, while Secretary of State Shirley Weber indicated her office would investigate these social media claims.
“Timely action is crucial to countering election misinformation,” Newsom stated in a recent letter to the 58 county registrars, urging prompt and accurate tabulation and release of results.
Submitting a mail-in ballot on Election Day, as some activists suggest, creates logistical challenges for election administration officials.
This results in what Kim Alexander, president of the California Voter Foundation, describes as the “pig in the python effect.” County election offices become overwhelmed with in-person ballots on Election Day, alongside mail-in ballots that require thorough processes like signature matching, envelope opening, and ballot extraction before counting.
Early ballot submissions can offer counties a valuable advantage, Alexander pointed out in a recent CalMatters forum focused on election integrity.
Mark DiCamillo, who manages polling for the Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies, remarked that pollsters strive to provide accurate data, but the multitude of variables in this election introduces a level of uncertainty even in the most reliable surveys.
The history of low voter turnout in gubernatorial primaries, compounded by the existence of 61 candidates, complicates predictions about who the likely voters will be, challenging pollsters to account for these dynamics.
“This election encompasses every factor you have to consider,” DiCamillo noted. “It poses a significant challenge for polling experts.”
Regardless of worries surrounding slow vote counts and unpredictable polling, Evans-Reber remains committed to her last-minute voting plan. She has doubts about whether mailing her ballot will reach the county elections office in time and intends to deliver her completed ballot directly to an election official at the office or a designated vote center.
“I plan to cast my ballot at the very last possible moment,” Evans-Reber declared. “I’m waiting until Election Day.”
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