Previously this month, the San Diego Padres faced a devastating elimination from the National League Division Series at the hands of the Milwaukee Brewers. After Milwaukee achieved a clean sweep over the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL Championship Series, they are now set to compete in the World Series against the Tampa Bay Rays.
With instances of balls hitting the roof at American Family Field and near home runs that could have equalized the game, the series between the Padres and Brewers was indeed remarkable. Ultimately, the 103-win Brewers proved to be the superior team.
The Brewers managed to out-hit the Padres with runners in scoring position, achieving a .229 average compared to San Diego’s .174. Regarding relief pitching, an area where the Padres excelled during the regular season, the two teams appeared significantly mismatched.
Throughout the four NLDS games, the Padres’ relief pitchers combined for a 2.75 ERA, while the Brewers held an impressive 0.47 ERA.
The apparent struggle of the bullpen in October could be traced back to the regular season. Padres starting pitchers logged the fourth-fewest innings in all of baseball during the 162-game season.
Throughout the postseason so far, the Rays not only lead in innings pitched by their starters but also boast a 1.98 ERA, the lowest among all playoff teams.
Short outings from starting pitchers were not perceived as a significant issue while the Padres’ offense surged in the second half of the season, and the bullpen maintained a strong 3.53 ERA (the fifth-best in MLB). However, the disparities between a team in the World Series and one that ended their season early became starkly evident at the worst possible moment.
Therefore, the starting pitching dilemma must be addressed during this offseason.
The majority of the pitchers expected in the Padres’ 2026 starting rotation are heading toward free agency, providing president of baseball operations AJ Preller with a significant opportunity to enhance the lineup.
The ace of the rotation, Michael King, delivered another impressive season with a 3.21 ERA, logging a career-high 185 innings and amassing a bWAR of 4.3. He is anticipated to decline his $28 million player option this offseason, yet this does not eliminate the possibility of negotiating a new contract to retain him in San Diego.
Nick Pivetta, who had a commendable 2.87 ERA season in 2025 but faced injuries for most of 2026 (recording a 2.86 ERA in eight starts), has a $14 million club option that might be executed. Lucas Giolito and Griffin Canning, holding mutual options, are not likely to return.
This scenario leaves Walker Buehler, Robbie Ray, and Casey Mize on the roster, but Buehler’s noticeable improvement in the second half combined with Ray and Mize’s poor performances after being traded to the Padres will likely prevent a reunion.
Right-hander Joe Musgrove, who didn’t take the mound until the wild-card round, posted a 3.88 ERA in his last full season back in 2024.
There are certainly solid components in place for a competitive rotation as 2027 approaches, but the front office must act to rectify their most glaring deficiency to return to the postseason — and hopefully advance further.
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