A new poll finds Democratic former congresswoman Katie Porter is leading a crowded field in the 2026 California governor’s race, after former Vice President Kamala Harris announced last month she would not seek the state’s highest office.
But with Harris out of the race and possibly eyeing another presidential campaign, a significant segment of likely voters remains undecided about who should replace Gov. Gavin Newsom at the end of his second term.
Porter, a favorite among progressives, leads with 18% of voters, up from 12% in April, according to the poll by Emerson College. She represented Orange County in the U.S. House of Representatives until this year, forgoing a reelection bid in what became a failed attempt to claim Dianne Feinstein’s seat in the Senate.
The poll comes as Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis, the first woman elected to the office, announced Friday she is dropping out of the race and launching a campaign for state treasurer. She had just 3% support in the poll. “At this moment, I believe I can make the greatest impact by focusing on California’s financial future,” Kounalakis said in a statement.
Conservative political commentator Steve Hilton, the leading Republican candidate, came in second with 12%. He’s followed by Republican Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco at 7%, former Democratic Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa at 5% and billionaire Los Angeles real estate developer Rick Caruso, a Republican-turned-Democrat who has yet to officially jump into the race, at 4%.
The poll, taken earlier this month, found 38% of likely voters were undecided, down from 54% in April. The poll surveyed an overall sample of 1,000 active registered voters in California between Aug. 4-5, with a margin of error of 3 percentage points.
Jack Pitney, a political science professor at Claremont McKenna College, said that while the early results are good news for Porter, who lost to Adam Schiff in her bid for U.S. Senate last year, he expected the numbers to move significantly between now and Election Day. California will hold a gubernatorial primary election, including candidates from all parties, on June 2, 2026.
“If I were running one of the campaigns in the low single digits, I’d say we have a lot of room to grow,” he said.
In a fundraising email Friday, the Porter campaign said the poll showed she is the “clear Democratic frontrunner, with a 13-point lead over the next closest Democrat.”
On the social media platform X, meanwhile, the Hilton campaign sought to frame the results as confirming a “two-horse race for California governor: Katie Porter v. Steve Hilton.” The state’s last Republican governor was Arnold Schwarzenegger, who held the position from 2003 to 2011.
The top two vote-getters from the June primary will face off in the general election on November 3, 2026. Newsom, a likely contender for president in 2028, is termed out.
Pitney said the departure of Kounalakis may free up donors, who would have backed the former real estate developer, to support more conservative candidates.
“She had a reputation as a more centrist, business-friendly Democrat,” he said.
The poll also found that Newsom leads California’s possible contenders in a Democratic presidential primary with 23%. He’s followed by former Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg at 17%, former Vice President Kamala Harris at 11% and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 9%.
On the Republican side, 40% support Vice President JD Vance, 10% support Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy and 9% support Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.
Newsom holds a 44% job approval rating, with 38% disapproving, according to the poll.
On Friday, the governor hosted Texas Democrats who fled that state in an effort to block redistricting efforts there aimed at electing more Republicans to Congress in next year’s midterm elections. To counter Republicans in Texas, Newsom has floated putting a measure on the statewide ballot allowing California to update its congressional map to benefit Democrats.
The Emerson poll found 33% support Newsom’s proposal, while 25% oppose and 42% are unsure.
“Support to redraw the state’s congressional map ahead of the midterm elections is strongest among Democrats by a 23-point margin, 42% to 19%, and opposed by an eight-point margin among Republicans, 36% to 28%,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in a statement. “A majority of independent voters are unsure, while 25% oppose and 23% support.”
The poll also found the economy remains the top issue for 30% of California voters, though down from 40% in April. Next came housing affordability at 19%, immigration at 15%, threats to democracy at 13% and health care at 8%.
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