US Container Growth Vanishes With World Trade Flows ‘Moving On’

By Brendan Murray

Jan 31, 2026 (Bloomberg) – US container imports wrapped up 2025 on a four-month decline, a trend that is expected to persist this year as trade moves to other nations to sidestep President Donald Trump’s tariffs, as noted by a shipping industry analyst’s report on the country’s top 10 ports.

Inbound volumes in December fell 6.4% year-over-year to 1.9 million 20-foot container units, following a 5.7% decrease in the prior month, according to John McCown, who releases a monthly report detailing flows through America’s largest ports for seaborne cargo.

“The decline in 2025 was attributable solely to tariffs,” McCown stated. “Unfortunately, there are no current signs indicating it will be a brief downturn.”

Trump has leveraged import taxes — whether actual or threatened — against trading partners in hopes of shrinking the US trade deficit and boosting domestic production. In reaction, major economies like China and the European Union are exploring ways to lessen their dependence on the US market, entering into trade agreements with other nations or blocs.

This has led to a shake-up in global commerce, which ING Groep NV economists recently termed “a global recalibration and the onset of a new era.” The US, once a frontrunner in container shipping growth, is now falling behind much of the world.

Port activity from Los Angeles to Houston and New York showed strong full-year totals, yet every facility monitored by McCown experienced year-over-year declines in December imports.

This is partly due to companies accumulating foreign-made components and goods in the first half of 2025 to sidestep Trump’s levies — many of which began in August — and then relying on those stocks in the latter half, causing fluctuations in container shipping demand.

Import volumes at the Port of Los Angeles, the busiest for maritime cargo in the nation, rose 3.3% in the first half of 2025 compared to the previous year, then dipped 4.2% in the second. Preliminary data from the Port of LA and Wabtec Corp. indicate a 2.2% decrease in the first four weeks of 2026.

Tracking container traffic provides valuable insights into the economy as ships transport 79% of the US’s international freight tonnage, with rail and pipelines making up about 14%, and trucks and planes 7%, according to the Bureau of Transportation Statistics.

As the demand for ocean cargo diminishes, spot container rates that decreased through January may continue to fall, according to Peter Sand, chief analyst with Xeneta, a digital freight platform based in Oslo.

“The market is increasingly favoring shippers over carriers, leading to further decreasing freight rates,” he noted in a recent message.

Adding Trump’s ongoing tariff policy uncertainty into the supply-demand equation, ING economists Julian Geib and Rico Luman stated in a research report on Friday that “the volatility seen in 2025 is likely to persist,” emphasizing that Trump continues to issue tariff threats.

They forecast global trade growth this year to be between 0.5% and 1%, a stark contrast to the 4.2% growth witnessed in 2025.

This cautious forecast aligns with the World Trade Organization’s predictions made in October, although its leader recently mentioned a potential uptick due to increased demand for equipment associated with artificial intelligence.

Supply Rerouting

“There has been significant disruption — the largest we’ve experienced in 80 years,” Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, the WTO’s director-general, stated in a Bloomberg TV interview last week in Davos, Switzerland.

Nevertheless, she remarked that “businesses are adapting” and that “what we observe is an increasing diversification of trade and efforts to route supply chains in ways that can accommodate uncertainty.”

McCown’s analysis also includes a comparative examination of global container data, demonstrating how inbound volumes through North America — with the US constituting about five-sixths of that total — have transformed from a world leader to a laggard in growth rates.

North American imports decreased by 3.9% in November compared to the previous year, while global volumes increased by 7.2%. Here’s a chart reflecting that shift based on McCown’s three-month trailing average:

Imports into Africa surged by 25.3% in November, while the Middle East-India region saw an increase of 16.4%. Latin America and Europe experienced growth rates of 14.6% and 11.3%, respectively.

“Volume growth in most regions remains strong and world trade is proceeding without the US,” McCown indicated. “Global container supply chains have started to evolve and adjust trading patterns at a pace faster than I anticipated, while US volumes remain stagnant and fall.”