Consultants for a prominent Republican gubernatorial candidate gathered on Friday evening at a bar in a San Diego resort’s hotel lobby.
With drinks in hand, they mingled with a small group of strategists, advocates, and podcasters enjoying a buoyant atmosphere. Attendees at the Republican Party’s annual convention this weekend were feeling hopeful, particularly regarding anticipated endorsements for governor and other positions.
Some attendees, including state party chairperson Corrin Rankin, expressed cautious optimism about a long-shot possibility that Republican Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and former Fox News host Steve Hilton might prevent Democrats from advancing in California’s top-two primary.
This optimism, however, faced significant challenges. For the past two decades, Republicans have not held any statewide office, and the president’s party typically struggles during midterm elections. Coupled with soaring gas prices, President Donald Trump’s popularity is at an all-time low in California.
Inflation surged sharply following the onset of the war in Iran, climbing by 0.9 percent in March, as reported here. Trump’s popularity has declined nationwide since the conflict began.
Voters had also approved a ballot measure last year aimed at removing as many as five Republicans from Congress, while Democrats maintain supermajorities in the state Legislature.
Despite this, party leaders and advocates remained hopeful, noting that national trends do not necessarily reflect California’s situation and that Democrats have failed to make life more affordable, as reiterated by multiple delegates.
On Friday, U.S. Rep. Eric Swalwell, a Democrat running for governor, faced allegations of sexual assault and lost significant endorsements in real-time. Some delegates viewed this fallout as evidence that the Democratic Party is struggling, despite claiming nearly 45 percent of the state’s registered voters.
“We’re witnessing an early stage of shift and realignment in our state,” commented Says Morris, chairperson of the Imperial County GOP.
Imperial County flipped for President Donald Trump in 2024, marking a significant shift after more than 30 years.
When it came to Trump’s unpopularity and its potential impact on Republican voter turnout, Rankin was reticent in her responses.
Bianco, who has garnered strong support from grassroots activists within the party, made a point to distinguish himself from Trump, stating that while an endorsement would have been welcome, it wouldn’t determine voter support for him.
“People here are just exhausted with California. They recognize that the federal government is not helping or harming the state,” Bianco shared with Voice of San Diego. “For the past week, people have not been concerned with what President Trump is doing.”
Party leaders emphasized a strategy focused on down-ballot races in areas of the state that are shifting rightward. This includes aiming to secure a few legislative seats in the Central Valley and retaining those that have flipped in the Inland Empire.
During a “Make California Great Again” session, organizers detailed strategies for achieving this, including registering younger voters and engaging Asian and Latino communities, who are increasingly diversifying the party’s base.
Assemblymember Laurie-Davies and Kelly Serato’s district are also anticipated to remain secure for Republicans.
To replicate past successes, Morris underscored the need for expanded voter registration in rural and underserved regions in the Inland Empire, Central Valley, and Los Angeles.
This focus has redirected attention towards several competitive races in the state Assembly and Senate. The party is optimistic about retaining a closely monitored legislative seat in the San Diego area, represented by Republican Minority Leader Brian Jones.
San Marcos City Councilmember Ed Musgrove is viewed as a frontrunner among establishment Republicans, having received endorsements from both Jones and U.S. Rep. Darrell Issa.
For some at the convention, Assemblymember Carl DeMaio’s Reform California initiative is part of the solution. Volunteers in one session distributed blue and yellow flyers that highlighted the organization’s priorities, chiefly a voter ID ballot initiative requiring voters to verify their citizenship each time they cast a ballot.
However, DeMaio also continues to create divisions within the party, as his group — which has raised millions from grassroots donors — positions itself as an alternative to the struggling state party.
Internal conflicts within the San Diego County Party regarding Jones’s successor hindered the state party’s ability to make an endorsement over the weekend.
“This really fuels conflict, and we’re squandering a lot of resources against each other because of it,” claimed Justin Schlaefil, a conservative activist and ally of Jones. “It is a winnable race, but it’s very tight. That presents challenges.”
What I’m Reading Now
The Manhattan district attorney’s office is looking into allegations against U.S. Rep. and gubernatorial candidate Eric Swalwell, who is accused of sexually abusing multiple women, as reported by the San Francisco Chronicle.
Teachers in Los Angeles are planning a job walk-off next week due to stalled contract negotiations, according to Politico.
The San Francisco Chronicle has endorsed Michael Tubbs — a former mayor of Stockton who gained national attention for becoming the youngest and first Black person to hold the position — for the largely ceremonial role of lieutenant governor.
Thank you for reading the Sacramento Report. Feel free to reach out to me: nadia@voiceofsandiego.org.
