California is experiencing a dismal political summer.
With the state facing daily challenges from the Trump administration, Los Angeles occupied by federal forces, and our wandering governor pursuing a presidential campaign, is it really unexpected?
A recent poll from UC Irvine revealed that residents, by a 2-to-1 margin, feel California is on the wrong path, a sentiment echoed in various measures of public dissatisfaction in the Golden State.
Why the grim expressions?
“The division in our country is so pronounced that many feel there’s no shared purpose, with others seemingly poised to disrupt what they care about,” described Jon Gould, dean of UC Irvine’s School of Social Ecology. “Additionally, a significant number of people perceive their economic circumstances as deteriorating compared to four years ago, two years ago, or even one year ago.”
Gov. Gavin Newsom also receives some credit, or rather blame, for the state’s gloomy outlook.
A survey from UC Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies found California voters lack confidence in their governor as he approaches his final year in office. (This might explain Newsom’s desire to focus on laying a foundation for a 2028 presidential run.)
Only 14% of voters polled expressed “a lot” of confidence in Newsom’s ability to act in the best interests of the public, while another 28% felt he could be trusted “somewhat.” Fifty-three percent reported little to no trust in the governor.
Not an ideal basis for a presidential campaign, but the allure of Washington is strong.
The Democratic-controlled Legislature didn’t fare much better in the Berkeley poll.
Forty-four percent of participants indicated they had either a lot or some trust in Sacramento lawmakers — not impressive, but still better than the public sentiment towards California’s tech companies and their executives, who aim to extend their substantial influence into politics. Just 4% expressed a lot of faith in these companies acting for the benefit of the public; nearly 60% outright distrusted them. (Similar skepticism surrounded business groups as well.)
But it’s not only state leaders and institutions that struggle to inspire trust or goodwill.
A poll conducted by the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California found that residents’ confidence in the three branches of the federal government has also waned.
Fewer than one-third of Californians expressed approval for President Trump and the conservative Supreme Court. Only 20% approved of Congress’s performance.
Some of this sentiment is influenced by party affiliation. Registered Democrats comprise the largest segment of the electorate, and naturally, most are dissatisfied with the GOP’s dominance in Washington. Nevertheless, this mistrust crosses party lines.
Overall, 80% of adults indicated they do not fully trust the federal government to act correctly. A nearly identical figure stated they trust the government to do what is right only occasionally.
This, too, is part of a long-standing trend.
“It’s a concern, but it’s not a new concern,” noted Mark Baldassare, who leads research at the Public Policy Institute. “This issue has persisted in various forms for decades.”
In 1958, when the National Election Study first conducted this inquiry, about 75% of Americans trusted the federal government to act correctly almost always or most of the time — a level of trust that today feels from another universe.
Beginning in the 1960s, with the escalation of the Vietnam War and extending through the Watergate scandal of the 1970s, that trust has systematically declined. The last time the Pew Research Center asked, in spring 2024, only 35% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents nationwide said they trusted the federal government almost always or most of the time, compared to just 11% of Republicans and Republican supporters.
What’s alarming — and perhaps most concerning — in the latest surveys are rising worries regarding the state of our democracy.
America has faced severe political conflicts in recent decades. However, it’s only during the Trump era, with his relentless falsehoods about the 2020 election and assaults on the rule of law, that the resilience of our democracy has become a widespread concern.
Pollsters didn’t even phrase this question “10 years ago, 20 years ago, as it seemed unthinkable,” stated Eric Schickler, co-director of Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies.
“Even during times of public anger, such as post-Katrina, Iraq during the Bush years, or facing the Lewinsky scandal, you would never have seen… 64% stating that American democracy is under attack while just 10% felt it was in no danger,” Schickler concluded. “That’s an astonishing figure … and I believe it indicates something significantly different is occurring now.”
Perhaps this is merely a fleeting darkness, akin to the marine layer that lifts as summer progresses?
“In the near to medium future, I am not particularly optimistic,” Schickler said. “The issues we face have escalated over time. They began well before the Trump era, undoubtedly, but have intensified recently. I fear we are moving toward a political landscape where there are no boundaries on what those in power will attempt, and the opposition party is viewed as an adversary, creating a detrimental dynamic.”
Oh, well.
Californians can always find solace in the mountains, beach, and desert.
