With the field of candidates in next year’s election for governor still in flux, the latest Berkeley IGS
Poll finds Riverside County Sheriff Republican Chad Bianco currently receiving the most support at
13%, while former Congresswoman Democrat Katie Porter places second with 11%.
These findings represent a reversal in the poll standings of the two frontrunners when compared to the
last Berkeley IGS Poll completed in August, when Porter was leading Bianco by seven points, 17% to
10%. In both polls, a huge four in ten voters reported being undecided.
Former Health and Human Services Director Democrat Xavier Becerra and Republican political
commentator Steve Hilton are tied for third in the latest poll, with each receiving 8% support, while
former Los Angeles Mayor Democrat Antonio Villaraigosa places fifth at 5%. None of the other
gubernatorial hopefuls listed in the poll received more than 3% support.
Preferences for each of the polling leaders are highly partisan. For example, Bianco is currently the
choice of 37% of the state’s GOP voters but receives only 1% from Democrats. Similarly, Hilton
receives 23% of Republican voter support but also polls just 1% among the Democrats. Conversely,
Porter is the first choice of 19% of Democrats and 1% of Republicans, while Becerra receives 13% of
the support of fellow Democratic voters, and just 2% from the Republicans. Significantly, 73% of the
Republicans surveyed offer a preference in the governor’s race, while only about half of the Democrats
(53%) or non-partisans (49%) do so.
In recent weeks there was much speculation surrounding the possible entry of U.S. Senator Alex Padilla
into the governor’s race, but on Tuesday he announced that he would not become a candidate. Results
from the latest poll that included Padilla as a possible candidate show that had he chosen to run for
governor, he would have begun the race with 12% support, ahead of Porter and just one point behind
Bianco. These results come from the latest Berkeley IGS Poll completed online in late October among
a cross-section of 8,141 registered voters statewide.
Observed IGS Co-Director Eric Schickler, “the results suggest that the governor’s race remains wide
open; with many Democratic voters still far from decided. Now that Proposition 50 has passed, the
candidates will need to now seize the opportunity to get voters’ attention.”
Bianco has overtaken Porter as the polling leader in the governor’s race
The latest Berkeley IGS Poll finds 13% of the state’s registered voters now supporting Bianco, with
Porter close behind at 11%. Becerra and Hilton are tied for third, with each receiving 8% of first-choice
preferences, while Villaraigosa places fifth at 5%.
These results indicate that voter support for Porter has slipped since an earlier August Berkeley IGS
Poll completed, which had shown Porter leading Bianco 17% to 10%.
Six other prominent political leaders, all Democrats, were included in the poll as gubernatorial
possibilities, but none received more than 3% support. They included former State Controller Betty
Yee (3%), Los Angeles real estate developer and former mayoral candidate Rick Caruso (3%), state
Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond (1%), and political activist Tom Steyer
(1%). Former State Assemblyman Ian Calderon and businessman Stephen Cloobeck were also
included in the poll but they each received less than 1% support.
A huge 44% of the state’s registered voters remain undecided.
Voters in this survey were also asked whether they had a favorable or unfavorable opinion of each the
candidates and potential candidates, or whether they did not know enough about each to offer an
opinion.
The results show that the voter impressions of the polling leader, Bianco, among the overall electorate
are slightly more negative than positive, with 26% offering an unfavorable assessment and 23%
favorable.
More voters also view Porter negatively (33%) than positively (26%). This contrasts with several
earlier Berkeley IGS Polls conducted in advance of last year’s U.S. Senate primary, which found voters
at that time holding much more positive assessment of her than they do now.
Hilton’s image rating among the overall electorate is also underwater, with 33% of voters expressing
an unfavorable opinion of him and 19% just favorable.
Becerra is the only gubernatorial hopeful still in the race whose overall image rating is more positive
than negative, with 26% of voters offering a favorable opinion and 22% unfavorable. Prior to his
decision not to become a candidate, Padilla received an even higher image score, with 39% of the
electorate viewing him positively and 26% negatively.
One characteristic common to virtually all the prominent political figures measured in the latest poll is
that voter impressions of them are highly partisan and receive more favorable assessments from
members of their own political party than among voters of the opposing party.
by Mark DiCamillo
Director, Berkeley IGS Poll
