In the first half of the year, homicides in Los Angeles decreased by over 20%, putting the city on track to achieve its lowest homicide total in nearly 60 years by the end of 2025, according to LAPD data.
While violent crime remains a concern in some areas, the overall number of homicides in L.A. has fallen to 116 as of June 28, down from 152 during the same timeframe last year.
Since 2021, homicides have exhibited a consistent decline, with total kills surpassing 400 amid the COVID-19 pandemic chaos. This decrease is reflective of a national trend, with cities like Baltimore and Detroit experiencing similar reductions.
Experts believe the nation may be experiencing the most significant reduction in killings in recorded history, influenced by various complex factors.
“What we’re observing is a broader trend spanning several years,” remarked Charis Kubrin, a criminology, law, and society professor at UC Irvine. “Homicide rates are declining across the entire United States.”
Although the Los Angeles Police Department did not publish homicide figures during the 1970s, it confirmed that current totals are on track for the lowest annual count since at least 1968.
Areas patrolled by the Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Department are also witnessing a drop in killings. As of May 31, the last date for which data is available, those areas recorded 58 homicides. Last year, 184 people were killed in jurisdictions under the agency’s oversight, nearly a 100 fewer than in 2021.
The decreased crime statistics contrast sharply with the negative portrayal of the city depicted by President Trump and other government officials to justify recent military deployments in L.A.
Traditionally, neighborhoods in the southern parts of the city that have suffered the most from violent crime are beginning to show remarkable improvements.
For example, the LAPD’s 77th Street Division in South Los Angeles, which has had higher homicide numbers than the entire San Fernando Valley in past years, saw its killings drop from 63 in 2021 to 38 last year. The neighboring Southeast Division, covering Watts and adjacent areas, experienced a reduction of over one-third during the same period.
Kubrin and various researchers have long warned against overly interpreting year-to-year crime data. She indicated that the reasons for these improvements likely stem from the complex and interconnected responses cities have made to the “stress, political division, and economic downturn” since 2020.
A theory suggesting that violence declines during economic booms gained traction after studies linked high homicide rates in the early 1990s to a recession; however, a subsequent downturn in the mid-2000s did not necessarily result in increased killings.
While conservatives attribute the declines to stringent crime strategies, Kubrin pointed out that other Western industrialized nations, which incarcerate a much smaller percentage of their populations compared to the U.S., also experienced crime decreases.
The Trump administration has proposed cutting hundreds of millions from federal funding for school safety grants, youth mentoring programs, and gang intervention initiatives, which studies indicate can effectively reduce crime.
Jeff Asher, a prominent criminology expert, referred to the recent timeframe as “the great murder decline,” which he attributed to “strong community investment from both private and public sources following the pandemic shock.”
Even as the LAPD reduces its size, some critics of law enforcement continue to advocate reallocating resources from the police budget to fund programs that address poverty and provide stable incomes and housing.
LAPD Deputy Chief Alan Hamilton stated that an increased police presence in response to recent incidents has likely acted as a deterrent to homicides, alongside contributions from gang interventionists and social workers.
However, Hamilton, who oversees the department’s detective division, cautioned that these improvements could be compromised if the department continues to lose officers amid the city’s ongoing financial difficulties. He warned of a potential rise in violence during the hotter summer months, a typical pattern.
