Here are three reflections following San Diego State’s 25-3 Mountain West victory over San Jose State at Snapdragon Stadium on Saturday night.
1. Situations
This could be quite straightforward.
If SDSU (9-2, 5-1 MW) secures a win against New Mexico (8-3, 5-2) on Friday afternoon, they’ll clinch the Mountain West regular-season title and host the conference championship game on December 5.
Even in the event of a loss, SDSU could still vie for the championship (at New Mexico) if both Boise State (7-4, 5-2) loses at Utah State on Friday, and UNLV (9-2, 5-2) falls at Nevada on Saturday.
Things get tricky if the Aztecs lose and end up tied for first at 6-2 with New Mexico and UNLV.
In that scenario, the Lobos would host the title game, having defeated both SDSU and UNLV during the season. A computer rating average would then determine whether SDSU or UNLV faces them. The head-to-head results don’t apply between SDSU and UNLV since they didn’t meet this season.
Computers also play a role if SDSU, Boise State, and New Mexico end up tied for first, given they each had a 1-1 record against one another.
Lastly, if all four teams find themselves tied at 6-2, it once again goes to the computers, as not all have faced each other.
Speaking of those computers:
The highest-ranked teams from various predictive and results-based computer metrics — the Mountain West uses Connelly SP+, ESPN’s SOR, KPI Rankings, and SportSource — advance to the championship.
So, let’s tally them up for each team, average them, and see how things are looking.
Not so fast.
It turns out that the SportSource rating is proprietary (that’s a fancy way of saying it costs money to access), so the actual totals won’t be disclosed until the Mountain West does so after this weekend’s games.
However, we can get an idea based on the averages from the other three ratings.
Team (Connelly SP+ / ESPN’s SOR / KPI Rankings) — average:
SDSU (43/43/41) — 42.33
UNLV (54/42/43) — 46.53
Boise State (55/56/45) — 52
New Mexico (70/47/54) — 57
In a three-team scenario involving SDSU, New Mexico, and UNLV, this indicates that the Rebels would surpass SDSU to face New Mexico for the title.
In scenarios involving SDSU with Boise State and New Mexico, or a four-team outcome, there’s a chance that the Aztecs remain among the top two teams and make it to the title game.
If all of this feels confusing, perhaps a walk and tuning into the weekend’s games will help clarify the outcome.
2. Cornered
SDSU cornerback Chris Johnson seemed to have a slight limp as he jogged towards the north goal line during a pregame ceremony honoring the Aztecs’ seniors.
It appeared that the lower-body injury making Johnson “questionable” on the weekly Availability Report was still affecting him.
However, once the game commenced, Johnson was revitalized.
San Jose State coach Ken Niumatalolo had wisely highlighted Johnson earlier in the week as a player with NFL potential.
The Spartans only targeted Johnson four times in the game, completing just one for zero yards, leading to a minus-25 pass efficiency rating.
Johnson’s most significant contributions came during a pivotal three-series stretch in the second half.
When San Jose State faced a fourth-and-1 at the SDSU 34-yard line in the third quarter, they targeted wide receiver Danny Scutero, who leads the nation in receiving yards.
Johnson delivered, stopping him for no gain.
On the next series, with San Jose State at second-and-4 from their 32, Johnson rushed in from the outside for his first career sack, dropping the quarterback for a 10-yard loss.
In the final quarter, Johnson secured his team-leading fourth interception of the season. He and San Jose State wide receiver Kyri Shoels contested a deep sideline ball, with Johnson coming down with it before hitting the ground.
“Honestly, I was a bit upset with myself on that play,” Johnson admitted. “I consider myself a perfectionist, and he had me beat. The quarterback underthrew it a bit, and we both went up for it, but I came down with the ball. I’d prefer to win that route outright without it being so close.”
That made it even more remarkable.
3. Attracting a Crowd
The game drew an announced crowd of 22,595 (tickets distributed), with an in-house attendance of 15,165.
The Aztecs have averaged 26,189 announced attendees for their six home games this season, while the turnstile average stands at 17,406, around 53.6% of the capacity at Snapdragon Stadium, which holds 32,500.
Snapdragon has maintained slightly over 50% capacity for the past three seasons, following a strong initial turnout of two-thirds occupancy (21,565) when the stadium opened in 2022.
SDSU has recorded seasons of 7-6, 4-8, and 3-9 in the previous three years, in contrast to their 9-2 record this year.
Winning was expected to resolve Snapdragon’s attendance challenges, but initial enthusiasm waned once the team started winning.
Yet the in-house attendance this season is only 647 higher than last year’s total of 16,759, when SDSU ended on a six-game losing streak.
Assuming that winning would correct everything oversimplifies the underlying attendance issues.
Fans stay away due to high ticket prices (along with parking and concessions), late game times, lack of interest in opponents, weather conditions (too hot or too cold), and even light rain.
Student attendance was robust in the first three home games, filling the stands behind the north end zone. After that, many opted for Halloween festivities over the Wyoming game, avoided possible rain at the Boise State game, and returned home for Thanksgiving instead of attending the San Jose State game.
SDSU organized an appealing promotion for students, offering a chance at free tuition (up to $10,000) for the spring semester in a raffle, with the winner needing to be present during the fourth quarter.
This promotion required all 5,000 student tickets to be claimed; however, less than 3,000 were requested.
SDSU officials also attempted to engage the general public with initiatives such as flash sales, $15 tickets for the Cal game, and $40 for two tickets for the Boise State matchup. Over 5,000 tickets were sold for the Broncos game, with another 3,000 allocated to military personnel. Unfortunately, rain impacted attendance, and nearly half of the tickets distributed went unused.
Both football and basketball season-ticket holders received two complimentary tickets to share with family or friends.
While this was another solid idea, it yielded limited results. One drawback of offering free tickets is that people may not value them.
If something else arises — or it rains lightly — individuals may choose not to attend since they’ve no financial stake in the game.
Therefore, SDSU officials will need to brainstorm for new strategies to draw in crowds.
